Oct 6, 2026

Three weeks.

That’s all that remains in the high school football regular season, and this is about the time when those computer numbers everybody casually checks on Saturday morning stop being a curiosity and start becoming very real.

After Week 7, the playoff picture across the Western Buckeye League and Midwest Athletic Conference has tightened considerably. There are teams chasing first-round byes, teams sitting directly on the playoff cut line, and a few teams that can dramatically change their fortunes with one big Friday night.

And lurking in the distance are two Week 9 games that could have championship and playoff implications all over them.

First, one important source note: the OHSAA’s indexed football page had not yet made its Week 7 ratings sheet readily available Tuesday afternoon. The numbers used here are Joe Eitel’s Harbin calculations updated Oct. 5 following Week 7. Eitel uses the OHSAA formula, but these should be considered unofficial until the state releases its Week 7 figures.

Under the current OHSAA format, the top 12 teams in each region qualify for the postseason, while the top four receive a first-round bye.

CELINA CONTINUES TO SET THE PACE

The Celina Bulldogs are 7-0 and remain No. 1 in Division III, Region 10 with a 16.3714 computer average.

Perhaps the most impressive number behind Celina’s ranking is its 113 Level 2 points.

That matters because Level 2 points are generated when teams Celina has already defeated continue winning. In other words, the Bulldogs aren’t simply collecting victories. Their résumé keeps getting stronger when previous opponents take care of business.

Celina isn’t alone in Region 10.

Wapakoneta has climbed to No. 5 at 4-3, while St. Marys has jumped to No. 8 at 4-3.

The Roughriders are one of the largest movers from the previous week. St. Marys stood at No. 13 and has now climbed five positions into playoff territory. Wapakoneta moved from No. 8 to No. 5.

That currently gives Region 10 three WBL teams inside the playoff field.

And then there is Ottawa-Glandorf.

O-G is also 7-0 and sits No. 2 in Division IV, Region 14 with a 13.9714 average. Joe Eitel’s calculations already list the Titans as having mathematically clinched a playoff spot.

Van Wert sits No. 9 in the same region, meaning the WBL currently has five teams inside the postseason field.

Two of them — Celina and Ottawa-Glandorf — are currently sitting in first-round bye position.

Now look ahead.

Celina hosts Bath this Friday.

Ottawa-Glandorf hosts Van Wert.

If both unbeaten teams win, Week 9 becomes impossible to ignore:

8-0 Celina at 8-0 Ottawa-Glandorf.

The Bulldogs and Titans meet Oct. 16 in a game that could carry WBL championship implications, regional seeding implications and a truckload of computer points.

That one is already worth circling.

THE WBL BUBBLE IS GETTING INTERESTING

Below the league leaders, Wapakoneta and St. Marys have both put themselves in much better positions.

Wapakoneta sits No. 5 and has Kenton followed by Elida over the next two weeks.

St. Marys, now No. 8, gets Shawnee and Kenton.

Getting to 6-3 would give the Roughriders a chance to considerably strengthen their position before Week 10.

Van Wert is No. 9 but faces a much more immediate challenge Friday at undefeated Ottawa-Glandorf.

Then comes Shawnee.

The Cougars are in the field today, but there isn’t much room for comfort.

Shawnee may be the WBL team to watch just outside the cut. The Indians sit No. 14 in Region 10 and will play St. Marys and Van Wert — two teams currently ahead of them in the playoff picture.

Those are exactly the kind of games that can move a bubble team quickly.

Elida, Kenton and Bath remain outside the top 12, but upset opportunities could still produce major computer value during the final weeks.

In other words, the standings may be fairly established.

The computers are not.

SEVEN MAC TEAMS ARE CURRENTLY IN

Now we get to the MAC.

This is where things become slightly ridiculous.

Seven of the league’s ten teams currently occupy playoff positions.

Coldwater is No. 5 in Division V, Region 18.

Versailles is No. 10 in Division VI, Region 24.

St. Henry sits directly on the cut at No. 12 in that same region.

Marion Local is No. 1 in Division VII, Region 28.

Minster is No. 3.

New Bremen is No. 7.

And Fort Recovery — despite a 2-5 record — currently sits No. 11.

Yes.

A 2-5 football team is currently in playoff position.

And that might be one of the best examples of how powerful the MAC schedule can become in the Harbin system.

Fort Recovery jumped from No. 15 last week to No. 11.

But nobody in Fort Recovery should be making playoff travel plans yet.

The Indians have a 2.1948 average.

Manchester is No. 12 at 2.1477.

Ridgemont is No. 13 at 2.0500.

The difference between No. 11 and No. 13 is only 0.1448 computer points.

That is basically nothing.

Fort Recovery hosts Parkway Friday and then plays New Bremen in Week 9.

Every point matters now.

COLDWATER IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF A BYE

Coldwater may not be fighting simply to make the playoffs anymore.

The Cavaliers could be fighting their way into a week off.

Coldwater is 6-1 and currently No. 5 in Division V, Region 18 with an 11.3714 average.

Triway occupies the fourth and final bye position at 11.5643.

Difference?

0.1929.

Not even two-tenths of a computer point separate Coldwater from a current first-round bye.

And Coldwater’s next two opponents are Anna and St. Henry.

Both have four wins.

That means those games carry real value, and every additional victory collected by teams already on Coldwater’s résumé can continue feeding the Cavaliers Level 2 points.

The race for fourth place in Region 18 is very much alive.

REGION 24 COULD GET WILD

Perhaps no local regional race has a more obvious cut line than Division VI, Region 24.

Versailles is No. 10.

St. Henry is No. 12.

Anna is No. 13.

That means St. Henry currently owns the final playoff position while Anna is the first team outside.

St. Henry’s average is 7.2143.

Anna’s is 6.1429.

Just 1.0714 points separate the two.

Now look at what’s coming.

St. Henry plays Minster this week and Coldwater next week.

Anna plays Coldwater and then Delphos St. John’s.

St. Henry unquestionably has the more difficult stretch, but difficulty also creates opportunity in the computer system. A victory over Minster or Coldwater would carry enormous value.

Anna’s trip to Coldwater may be the Rockets’ biggest remaining chance to make a significant computer jump.

Versailles, meanwhile, has a somewhat friendlier road with Delphos St. John’s and Parkway over the next two weeks.

At No. 10, the Tigers are in — but they have work left to do.

THIS FRIDAY MATTERS

The Week 8 schedule includes several games that may not necessarily decide championships, but could have an immediate impact on playoff positioning.

In the WBL:

Wapakoneta travels to Kenton.

St. Marys goes to Shawnee.

Bath visits Celina.

Elida travels to Defiance.

Van Wert goes to Ottawa-Glandorf.

In the MAC:

Versailles visits Delphos St. John’s.

Marion Local travels to New Bremen.

Anna goes to Coldwater.

Parkway visits Fort Recovery.

And St. Henry travels to Minster.

For computer purposes, St. Henry-Minster, Anna-Coldwater and Parkway-Fort Recovery may be three of the biggest MAC games of the weekend.

In the WBL, Van Wert-Ottawa-Glandorf and St. Marys-Shawnee carry major immediate consequences for teams around the playoff bubble.

AND THEN COMES OCTOBER 16

Week 9 has the potential to be one of the most important local football Fridays of the regular season.

Celina at Ottawa-Glandorf.

Minster at Marion Local.

Coldwater at St. Henry.

New Bremen at Fort Recovery.

Celina-Ottawa-Glandorf could become a matchup between unbeaten WBL leaders and two teams sitting near the top of their respective regions.

Minster-Marion Local could directly alter the top of Region 28.

Coldwater-St. Henry could involve one team chasing a first-round bye while the other fights simply to stay above the playoff line.

New Bremen-Fort Recovery could become enormous for a Fort Recovery team whose current playoff position is hanging by fractions of a point.

Three weeks remain.

The WBL currently has five teams inside the playoff field, including two in bye position.

The MAC has seven teams inside, also with two currently holding byes.

And from this point forward, teams aren’t just watching their own scoreboard.

They’re watching everybody they’ve beaten, everybody around them in the region, and sometimes games happening 100 miles away.

Welcome to October high school football.

The games are still decided on the field.

But now the math is keeping score, too.